2018 is off to a wild start in the land of crypto. We’ve seen ICOs halted, scams boldly emerge, utility tokens be declared securities. Facebook and Twitter have banned ICO ads, and Mailchimp just announced: no more ICO or blockchain email blasts. I’ve forced myself not to check my crypto portfolio as Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to drop, and the media has all but declared Bitcoin dead.
We’re going through a shakeout, and I think it’s much needed. Crypto has all but become synonymous with fraud and a cool down in the market should serve to push out many of the get-rich-quick schemes and mainstream buyers who didn’t purchase based on a researched expectation. Investing, no matter if it’s in real estate, the stock market, or in crypto, should never, never be done based on someone else’s recommendation. Always do your own research and establish your own well-thought out expectation. I wrote a post on this, here.
I am still bullish on Ether and have not sold out of my position, I’d go so far as to consider it on sale right now (insert “lol”). The Ethereum blockchain holds so much potential, I’m in it for the long haul / hodl. (This is not to be considered investment advice.)
While we’ve seen regulatory concerns heat up, we’ve also seen a sort of mutual respect emerge between regulatory bodies and the crypto community here in Canada and in the US. I think 2018 will be the year we’ll see this firmed up and we’ll have a regulatory roadmap guiding production of crypto.
Honestly, it can’t come soon enough. I tend to think we’re on the precipice of a dot-com blow up where the get-rich-quick schemes far outpace actual innovation and people just get sick of funding projects with “crypto” and “blockchain” slapped on them. That’s a dangerous place to end up, because funding could seriously wind down and innovation could become stifled. Of course, on the other side of things, regulation could go too far and stifle innovation in its own right – but that’s a battle that I believe wouldn’t kill it in the same way that greed would. If regulators curtail development, I tend to think it’ll produce a pent up desire for supply and thus a real demand that could help governments rethink and reposition regulation.
What I hope 2018 will be, is the year that as an industry, we regulate ourselves. This means developing an industry and community-trusted standard for legitimate projects. It should focus on baseline development before crowdfunding, a technical whitepaper, and an application for blockchain that couldn’t be done without the technology. Basically, if it doesn’t need a token, or blockchain, or a group is literally just slapping blockchain on an existing solution, it should be a pass.
Speaking of regulation (and there’s plenty controversy around this particular idea), I think that in 2018 that we’re more likely to see governments issue a state cryptocurrency than we are to see them put a shut down on use of crypto. Yes, it would be fairly easy for a government to make crypto illegal in order to retain control over fiscal policy and ensure control over the existing monetary system – and over society – but I think governments realize what a backlash they’d face, not to mention they’re afraid of falling behind in technological innovation. And yes, we have already seen several governments issue state cryptocurrencies, though I’d say the jury is out as to whether it has been done successfully yet.
2018 will also be the year that there is a clear distinction made between utility tokens and security tokens. Many blockchain-based applications require use of a utility token, and for those businesses that want to ensure it is labelled a utility and not a security, companies will issue a security token in tandem – forward thinking groups are already doing this.
In terms of most significant applications of blockchain tech, I think the capital markets, personal identity, and supply chain management will be the focus of 2018. The capital markets need little explaining; the system is very robust in terms of costly intermediaries and antiquated processes, and supply chain management is an easy win for corporations needing to track provenance of product or food inception, warehouse storage, delivery dates, and chain partners along the food item or product’s journey. Identity is controversial because it’s hard to get away from third parties; at some point, there is an intervening group providing the service of identity to the public. But, I believe in innovation meeting need, and I think people are f*cking sick of corporations not only profiting off their personal data, but playing loose and reckless with it. *cough* Facebook *cough.* This year we’re going to see a big development in how personal data is owned and accessed.
A friend I met in DC had made the prediction awhile back that Bitcoin would see $33k by July. I’ll be sharing my 2018 predictions for Ether and Bitcoin in my next post. Stay tuned!
In the feature pic I’m wearing a plaid blazer by Brooks Brothers (got it on The Real Real), AG by Adriano Goldschmied jeans, Stuart Weitzman boots, a black cashmere v-neck from Lord & Taylor (similar here), and a black Tumi backpack.
